Recommendation ID

Risk tools for predicting non-sudden death in heart failure:- What is the most accurate prognostic risk tool in predicting 1-year mortality from heart failure at specific clinically relevant thresholds (for example, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value and positive predictive value at a threshold of 50% risk of mortality at 1 year)?

Any explanatory notes
(if applicable)

Why this is important:- There are a number of validated prognostic risk tools for heart failure but most do not report sensitivity and specificity at clinically relevant thresholds. This information is crucial to enable accurate prediction of a person's risk of mortality. The ability to accurately predict a person's prognosis would allow clearer communication and timely referral to other services such as palliative care. Inaccurate prediction has the potential to lead to significant psychological harm and increased morbidity.

Source guidance details

Comes from guidance
Chronic heart failure in adults: diagnosis and management
Date issued
September 2018

Other details

Is this a recommendation for the use of a technology only in the context of research? No  
Is it a recommendation that suggests collection of data or the establishment of a register?   No  
Last Reviewed 30/09/2018