Specialist commentator comments

Comments on this technology were invited from clinical specialists working in the field and relevant patient organisations. The comments received are individual opinions and do not represent NICE's view.

All specialists were familiar with this technology or other similar methods.

Level of innovation

Two specialists stated that PredictSure-IBD is a novel technology. One specialist stated that there was not enough evidence to determine how innovative PredictSure-IBD is.

Potential patient impact

The 3 experts agreed that PredictSure-IBD could offer benefits to people with Crohn's disease. The experts stated that PredictSure-IBD might be a helpful test to determine the most appropriate biologic therapy. One expert noted that this could be particularly important to people with severe inflammation and may help avoid surgery and long-term complications. One expert noted that PredictSure-IBD could help patients with good outcomes avoid taking unnecessary biologics.

Potential system impact

All experts agreed that PredictSure-IBD could provide information to allow clinicians to prescribe more appropriate therapy. One expert noted that there was potential for this to reduce the length of hospital stays, surgery and long-term complications. However this is highly dependent on the positive predictive value of the test, which has not yet been determined. Two experts stated that the use of PredictSure-IBD is likely to lead to cost savings if it performs as expected, but one expert noted that the cost of drug treatment will reduce as biosimilars to treat Crohn's disease will be available for December 2018.

General comments

One expert noted that the current evidence suggests that the test is successful in predicting disease outcome in the early stages. However, the value of the test is dependent on the effectiveness of early intervention and how good the test is at discrimination between good and poor outcomes. Two experts noted that people with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis may benefit from this test.