5 Implications for the NHS
5.1 Of 6,000 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer each year, at least 80% of them (4,800 patients) are estimated to have locally advanced or metastatic disease. Assuming that 25-35% of those will be offered chemotherapy and only half of them are treated, the total number of patients on gemcitabine would be in the range of 600 to 840 patients per year.
5.2 The incremental cost of gemcitabine treatment ranges between £1,360 and £3,550 per patient depending on the type of the 5-FU regimen. If gemcitabine were to be made available for routine NHS use, based on the estimated number of eligible patients above, the total additional cost to the NHS is estimated to be between £816,000 and £3m per annum. This includes the direct costs to the NHS such as drug costs and utilisation of health services.