Using the above estimates, the additional spending in a Primary Care Trust (PCT) with a population of 100,000 people was calculated crudely, assuming different levels of uptake with tacrolimus and pimecrolimus. The calculations assumed the point prevalence of atopic eczema to be 13.4% (based on a prevalence study in the UK in 1996), that 14% of people with atopic eczema have moderate disease and that 2% of people with atopic eczema have severe disease. On the basis of these assumptions, the estimated additional annual spending in a PCT this size would be:
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between £11,500 and £25,600 if 1% of people currently using topical corticosteroids with moderate or severe disease need to switch to tacrolimus, and between £9,600 and £21,000 if 1% of people with moderate disease need to switch to pimecrolimus (in this case, children with atopic eczema on the face or neck)
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between £23,100 and £51,100 if 2% of people currently using topical corticosteroids with moderate or severe disease need to switch to tacrolimus, and between £19,200 and £41,900 if 2% of people with moderate disease need to switch to pimecrolimus (in this case, children with atopic eczema on the face or neck)
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between £57,700 and £127,800 if 5% of people currently using topical corticosteroids with moderate or severe disease need to switch to tacrolimus, and between £47,900 and £104,800 if 5% of people with moderate disease need to switch to pimecrolimus (in this case, children with atopic eczema on the face or neck).
Given the number of assumptions involved in the calculations, these estimates should be interpreted cautiously. In addition, it is known that 610,000 prescriptions for tacrolimus with a total net ingredient cost of £2,260,300 and 21,650 prescriptions for pimecrolimus with a total net ingredient cost of £652,900 were issued in England during 2003. It has therefore been estimated that a PCT with a population of 100,000 would have spent around £4,500 on prescriptions for tacrolimus and around £1,300 on prescriptions for pimecrolimus during this time.