Evidence review

This evidence summary is based on 2 randomised, open-label multicentre trials of similar size and design, which were conducted in parallel in different countries (Mansour et al. 2011 and Westhoff et al. 2012). These were the 2 key studies assessed by the European Medicines Agency when a licence application was submitted for nomegestrol/estradiol (see the European public assessment report for Zoely).

  • Design: both studies were randomised and open-label. Mansour et al. (2011) was conducted in 95 gynaecological or general practices in Europe, Asia and Australia; Westhoff et al. (2012) was conducted in 89 gynaecological or general practices in the United States, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico.

  • Population: the studies included healthy, sexually active women aged 18–50 years with a body mass index (BMI) between 17 and 35 kg/m2 who needed contraception and did not plan to use condoms. Mansour et al. (2011) included 2152 women with a mean age of 28 years and a mean BMI of 23 kg/m2. Westhoff et al. (2012) included 2281 women with a mean age of 28 years and a mean BMI of 24.5 kg/m2. In both studies, baseline characteristics were reported to be similar between the groups.

  • Intervention and comparison: participants were randomly allocated in a 3:1 ratio to either nomegestrol acetate 2.5 mg plus 17β‑estradiol 1.5 mg in a 24/4 regimen (Mansour et al. 2011 n=1613, Westhoff et al 2012 n=1710) or drospirenone 3 mg plus ethinylestradiol 30 micrograms in a 21/7 regimen (Mansour et al. 2011 n=539, Westhoff et al 2012 n=571) for 13 consecutive 28-day cycles. Electronic diaries were used to record pill intake and document vaginal bleeding, condom use and vaginal intercourse.

  • Outcomes: the primary outcome in both studies was contraceptive efficacy in women aged 18–35 years, assessed by recording in-treatment pregnancies between the first and the last day of taking the trial drug plus an extension window (2 days in Mansour et al. 2011, 7 days in Westhoff et al 2012). Contraceptive efficacy was expressed as the Pearl Index (in-treatment pregnancies per 100 woman-years of exposure; 1 woman-year equals 13 cycles of 28 days). Cycles during which condoms were consistently used as a barrier back-up method were excluded. Secondary outcomes included:

    • Contraceptive efficacy in the overall age group (18–50 years).

    • The number of days of bleeding or spotting per 91-day reference period. Vaginal bleeding was classified as spotting if no or 1 pad or tampon was needed per day, or bleeding if more than 1 pad or tampon was needed per day.

    • Incidence and duration of unscheduled bleeding or spotting. Unscheduled bleeding or spotting was classified as any bleeding or spotting episode that occurred during the expected non-bleeding period.

    • Incidence of absence of withdrawal bleeding. Withdrawal bleeding was classified as any bleeding or spotting episode that began during or continued into the expected bleeding period.

    • Safety and tolerability. Data were obtained by monitoring adverse events and routine laboratory parameters, and by physical and gynaecological examinations.

The key efficacy results for both studies are reported in table 1 and key safety results for both studies are reported in table 2.

Table 1 Summary of efficacy

Mansour et al. (2011) and Westhoff et al. (2012)

Nomegestrol/ estradiol

Drospirenone/ ethinylestradiol

Analysis

Randomised

Mansour et al.

n=1613

n=539

Westhoff et al.

n=1710

n=571

Efficacy

Mansour et al.

n=15911

n=5351

Westhoff et al.

n=16662

n=5542

Primary outcome: contraceptive efficacy in women aged 18–35 years

Mansour et al.

n=13153

4 pregnancies

PI 0.38 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.97)

n=4423

3 pregnancies

PI 0.81 (95% CI 0.17 to 2.35)

No statistically significant difference between groups

p value not reported

Westhoff et al.

n=13753

12 pregnancies

PI 1.27 (95% CI 0.66 to 2.22)

n=4633

6 pregnancies

PI 1.89 (95% CI 0.69 to 4.11)

No statistically significant difference between groups

p value not reported

Selected secondary outcomes:

Contraceptive efficacy in women aged 18–50 years

Mansour et al.

PI 0.31 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.79)

PI 0.66 (95% CI 0.14 to 1.94)

No statistically significant difference between groups

p value not reported

Westhoff et al.

PI 1.13 (95% CI 0.60 to 1.94)

PI 1.83 (95% CI 0.74 to 3.77)

No statistically significant difference between groups

p value not reported

Mean number of days bleeding and/or spotting per 91-day reference period

Mansour et al.

Bleeding and spotting

1st 91-day period: 14.9

4th 91-day period: 10.6

1st 91-day period: 18.5

4th 91-day period: 19.2

Statistical significance of differences and p values not reported

Westhoff et al.

Bleeding

1st 91-day period: 5.9

4th 91-day period: 4.1

1st 91-day period: 9.8

4th 91-day period: 11.6

Statistically significantly lower in the nomegestrol/ estradiol group in all 4 91-day periods, p<0.001

Spotting

1st 91-day period: 8.9

4th 91-day period: 5.4

1st 91-day period: 7.9

4th 91-day period: 7.7

Statistically significantly lower in the nomegestrol/ estradiol group in 91-day periods 3 (p=0.031) and 4 (p<0.001)

Incidence of unscheduled bleeding or spotting

Mansour et al.

Range 20 to 14% in cycles 4–13

Range 17 to 11% in cycles 4–13

Statistically significantly higher in the nomegestrol/ estradiol group in cycles 2–4 and 11, p<0.05

Westhoff et al.

Range about 30 to 16% in all 13 cycles4

Range about 21 to 8% in all 13 cycles4

Statistically significantly higher in the nomegestrol/ estradiol group in cycles 2–6, p<0.05

Incidence of absence of withdrawal bleeding

Mansour et al.

Range 22 to 31% in cycles 4–12

Range 3 to 6% in cycles 4–12

Statistically significantly higher in the nomegestrol/ estradiol group in cycles 2–12, p<0.05

Westhoff et al.

Range about 18 to 34% in cycles 1–124

Range about 3 to 9% in cycles 1–124

Statistically significantly higher in the nomegestrol/ estradiol group in cycles 2–12, p<0.001

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; PI, Pearl Index; ITT, intention-to-treat

1 Efficacy analyses were based on the modified ITT group, which included all randomised women who took at least 1 dose of trial medication.

2 For contraceptive efficacy, analyses were based on the modified ITT group, which included all women who completed at least 1 cycle. It is unclear whether this applies to all other efficacy analyses.

3 The PI was based on all women in the modified ITT group, excluding any cycles in which condoms were always used.

4 Exact data not supplied. Estimated from figures in the paper.

Table 2 Summary of safety

Mansour et al. (2011) and Westhoff et al. (2012)

Nomegestrol/ estradiol

Drospirenone/ ethinylestradiol

Analysis

Randomised

Mansour et al.

n=1613

n=539

Westhoff et al.

n=1710

n=571

Safety1

Mansour et al.

n=1591

n=535

Westhoff et al.

n=1666

n=554

Discontinuation rate

Mansour et al.

28.2%

23.4%

p value not reported

Westhoff et al.

40.7%

37.9%

p value not reported

Incidence of treatment-related adverse events

Mansour et al.

51.2%

37.0%

p value not reported

Westhoff et al.

48.8%

36.3%

p value not reported

Discontinuation rate due to adverse events

Mansour et al.

18.2%

10.5%

p value not reported

Westhoff et al.

17.3%

10.1%

p value not reported

Incidence of acne as a treatment-related adverse event (discontinuation rate)

Mansour et al.

15.3% (3.3%)

7.1% (0.2%)

p values not reported

Westhoff et al.

16.4% (13.5%)

8.7% (not reported)

p value not reported

Incidence of irregular withdrawal bleeding as a treatment-related adverse event (discontinuation rate)

Mansour et al.

11.7% (4.0%)

0.4% (0.7%)

p values not reported

Westhoff et al.

9.1% (3.8%)

0.5% (1.8%)

p value not reported for incidence. Discontinuation rate statistically significantly higher in the nomegestrol/ estradiol group, p<0.023

Incidence of weight increase as a treatment-related adverse event (discontinuation rate)

Mansour et al.

7.9% (1.4%)

6.2% (0.7%)

p values not reported

Westhoff et al.

9.5% (8.3%)

5.2% (not reported)

p values not reported

Increase in body weight from baseline

Mansour et al.

Mean 1.00 kg

Mean 0.35 kg

Statistically significantly higher in the nomegestrol/ estradiol group, p=0.001

Westhoff et al.

Median 1.00 kg

Median 0.2 kg

p value not reported

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; PI, Pearl Index

1 Safety analyses included all randomised women who received at least 1 dose of trial medication.

Clinical effectiveness

Contraceptive efficacy

Both studies found that there was no statistically significant difference in contraceptive efficacy between nomegestrol/estradiol and drospirenone/ethinylestradiol in women aged 18–35 years (the primary outcome). In Mansour et al. (2011) the Pearl Index was estimated to be 0.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.10 to 0.97) in the nomegestrol/estradiol group and 0.81 (95% CI 0.17 to 2.35) in the drospirenone/ethinylestradiol group (p value not reported) in women aged 18–35 years. In Westhoff et al. (2012) the Pearl Index in women aged 18–35 years was 1.27 (95% CI 0.66 to 2.22) in the nomegestrol/estradiol group and 1.89 (95% CI 0.69 to 4.11) in the drospirenone/ethinylestradiol group (p value not reported). Similar results were seen for the overall age group (18–50 years) in both studies. In previous trials assessing the efficacy of new oral contraceptives the Pearl Index has ranged between 0.0 and 2.0.

All bleeding and spotting

In both studies, the mean number of days on which women experienced bleeding or spotting was lower in woman taking nomegestrol/estradiol than in women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol. The number of bleeding or spotting days decreased over the course of the study (13 cycles) in women taking nomegestrol/estradiol, but not in women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol. See table 1 for details.

Unscheduled bleeding or spotting

As with overall bleeding, in both studies unscheduled bleeding or spotting decreased over time in the nomegestrol/estradiol group. In comparison, after the first few cycles, there was no obvious trend in the drospirenone/ethinylestradiol group. However, in some cycles, particularly early cycles, unscheduled bleeding or spotting was statistically significantly more common with nomegestrol/estradiol than with drospirenone/ethinylestradiol.

In Mansour et al. (2011) in cycles 4–13 the incidences of unscheduled bleeding or spotting ranged from 20 to 14% in women taking nomegestrol/estradiol and from 17 to 11% in women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol. Bleeding or spotting was statistically significantly more common in the nomegestrol/estradiol group in cycles 2–4 and 11 (p<0.05) than in the drospirenone/ethinylestradiol group.

In women who experienced unscheduled bleeding or spotting, the median number of days per cycle was similar between the groups (2–3 days in the nomegestrol/estradiol group and 1–4 days in the drospirenone/ethinylestradiol group; p value not reported).

In Westhoff et al. (2012), over all cycles, the incidence of unscheduled bleeding or spotting was around 30 to 16% in women taking nomegestrol/estradiol, and around 21 to 8% in women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol. Bleeding or spotting was statistically significantly more common in the nomegestrol/estradiol group in cycles 2–6 (p<0.05) than in the drospirenone/ethinylestradiol group.

In women who experienced unscheduled bleeding or spotting the median number of days was similar between the groups, fluctuating between 2 and 3 days in both groups (p value not reported).

Withdrawal bleeding

In both studies, the absence of withdrawal bleeding was statistically significantly more common in the nomegestrol/estradiol group in all cycles, than in the drospirenone/ethinylestradiol group. Withdrawal bleeds, in women who experienced them, were shorter and lighter in the group taking nomegestrol/estradiol.

In Mansour et al. (2011) absence of withdrawal bleeding increased progressively in the nomegestrol/estradiol group, with the incidence ranging from 22% in cycle 4 to 31% in cycle 12. In comparison, the incidence varied between 3 and 6% in the drospirenone/ethinylestradiol group with no obvious trend. The difference between the groups was statistically significant in all cycles (p<0.05).

In women who experienced withdrawal bleeding, the median number of withdrawal bleeding or spotting days was lower in the group taking nomegestrol/estradiol than in the group taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol (3–4 days compared with 5 days; p value not reported). The difference was due to a difference in bleeding rather than spotting days (2 days of bleeding with nomegestrol/estradiol and 3 days with drospirenone/ethinylestradiol; p value not reported).

A progressive increase in the incidence of absence of withdrawal bleeding was also seen in the nomegestrol/estradiol group in Westhoff et al. (2012), ranging from about 18 to 34% over the course of the study. In comparison, the incidence fluctuated between around 3 and 9% in the drospirenone/ethinylestradiol group. The difference between the groups was statistically significant in all cycles (p<0.001).

In women who experienced withdrawal bleeding or spotting, the median number of days was statistically significantly lower in women taking nomegestrol/estradiol than in women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol (3–4 days compared with 5 days; p<0.001 in all cycles).

Safety and tolerability

The summary of product characteristics advises that, because no epidemiological data are currently available for combined oral contraceptives containing estradiol, the warnings of serious adverse events seen with other combined oral contraceptives (such as venous thromboembolism, other circulatory disorders, breast cancer and cervical cancer) are considered applicable to nomegestrol/estradiol.

According to the summary of product characteristics for Zoely, the most frequently reported adverse events in studies of nomegestrol/estradiol were acne and abnormal withdrawal bleeding (predominantly absence of withdrawal bleeding), which affected at least 1 in 10 women. Other common adverse events, affecting between 1 in 100 and 1 in 10 women, were decreased libido, depression or mood changes, headache or migraine, nausea, unscheduled bleeding or spotting, menorrhagia, breast or pelvic pain and weight increase.

In Mansour et al. (2011) and Westhoff et al. (2012) about 50% of women taking nomegestrol/estradiol had adverse events that were considered to be related to the contraceptive, compared with about 37% of women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol. The most frequently reported related adverse events (occurring in 5% or more women) were acne, irregular withdrawal bleeding and weight gain in both studies. According to the summary of product characteristics, in these 2 studies combined, acne was reported by 15.4% of women taking nomegestrol/estradiol compared with 7.9% of women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol; weight gain was reported by 8.6% of women taking nomegestrol/estradiol compared with 5.7% of women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol; and abnormal withdrawal bleeding (predominantly absence of withdrawal bleeding) was reported by 10.5% of women taking nomegestrol/estradiol compared with 0.5% of women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol. The significance of the differences between the groups was not reported. (See table 2 for data on adverse events in the individual studies.)

In both studies adverse events led to about 18% of women stopping nomegestrol/estradiol and 10% of women stopping drospirenone/ethinylestradiol. In Mansour et al. (2011) acne, irregular withdrawal bleeding and weight gain accounted for most of the differences in discontinuation rates between the 2 groups (see table 2 for more details). In Westhoff et al. (2012) statistically significantly more women taking nomegestrol/estradiol stopped treatment because of irregular withdrawal bleeding (3.8%, compared with 1.8% with drospirenone/ethinylestradiol; p<0.023). Differences between the contraceptives are not reported for acne and weight gain.

In both studies the presence of acne decreased over time with both contraceptives. The authors suggest that nomegestrol/estradiol may not cause acne, but acne may have been frequently reported because assessment for acne at each clinic visit had raised awareness. Also, differences between the 2 groups might be because drospirenone/ethinylestradiol has a positive effect on acne, rather than nomegestrol/estradiol having a negative effect.

The authors also suggest that reports of adverse effects and discontinuation because of irregular withdrawal bleeding in women taking nomegestrol/estradiol might have been reduced if healthcare professionals and women had been counselled that withdrawal bleeding might not occur.

In both studies the body weight of women taking nomegestrol/estradiol increased by 1 kg on average over 13 cycles. In comparison, women taking drospirenone/ethinylestradiol gained 0.35 kg in Mansour et al. (2011) (p<0.001) and 0.2 kg in Westhoff et al. (2012) (p value not reported). These results are consistent with a Cochrane review that concluded that combined hormonal contraceptives do not have a large effect on weight.

Venous thromboembolism was not reported by any women taking nomegestrol/estradiol in the studies. However, according to the summary of product characteristics, venous thromboembolic events have been reported during post-marketing use. A European Medicines Agency review of the risk of venous thromboembolism with combined hormonal contraceptives reports that available data for nomegestrol are insufficient for comparison with other progestogens, but further studies are ongoing or planned.

Evidence strengths and limitations

The 2 studies were well designed. However, although they were randomised, controlled and allocation was concealed, they do have limitations. Neither of the studies was blinded, which is a potential source of bias. An open-label design was chosen because the differences in the nomegestrol/estradiol and drospirenone/ethinylestradiol regimens (24/4 compared with 21/7) would lead to obvious differences in the timing of withdrawal bleeding and in the missed pill guidance given to the 2 groups. Both studies were funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme.

The inclusion and exclusion criteria of the studies were generally representative of the standard population used for evaluating contraceptives in healthy women of childbearing potential. However, no young women aged 12–17 years were included: both studies included women aged 18–50 years. The summary of product characteristics for Zoely states that no data on efficacy and safety are available for young women under 18.

The definition used for in-treatment pregnancies for the licensing of contraceptives in Europe is pregnancies with an estimated date of conception from the day of first intake of trial medication up to and including the day of last intake of trial medication, extended with a maximum of 2 days. In Westhoff et al. (2012) the extension period was 7 days rather than 2 days. However, in the European public assessment report for Zoely, the analyses for this study are based on a 2-day extension period and the results seen are similar to those reported in Westhoff et al. (2012).

The baseline characteristics of the women appear to be well balanced between the 2 groups in both studies. However, no statistical analysis was performed to determine the significance of any differences.

According to the European public assessment report for Zoely, baseline characteristics differed between the 2 studies with regards to race, ethnicity, weight, gynaecological and contraceptive history and socioeconomic background. This may be the reason for some of the differences between the study results, such as the Pearl Index (0.38 for nomegestrol/estradiol and 0.81 for drospirenone/ethinylestradiol in Mansour et al. 2011; 1.27 for nomegestrol/estradiol and 1.89 for drospirenone/ethinylestradiol in Westhoff et al. 2012) and discontinuation rates (28.2% for nomegestrol/estradiol and 23.4% for drospirenone/ethinylestradiol in Mansour et al. 2011; 40.7% for nomegestrol/estradiol and 37.9% for drospirenone/ethinylestradiol in Westhoff et al. 2012).

The total number of women who stopped taking the contraceptive was high in both groups in both studies. However, the European public assessment report for Zoely notes that the discontinuation rates are lower than planned in the sample size calculations. The difference between the discontinuation rates in the studies is mainly because of a higher percentage of 'withdrawal of informed consent' and 'lost to follow up' in Westhoff et al. (2012) than in Mansour et al. (2011).

The European public assessment report for Zoely suggests that women in Westhoff et al. (2012) adhered less to the contraceptive regimen than women in Mansour et al. (2011). In Westhoff et al. (2012) 27 women were excluded from the intention-to-treat analysis because of the limited credibility of their electronic data; in Mansour et al. (2011) only 2 women were excluded for this reason.

Mansour et al. (2011) was conducted in Europe, Asia and Australia and may be more relevant to UK practice than Westhoff et al. (2012), which was conducted in the United States, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico.