At the second meeting, the committee noted that the company's approach to modelling IVIg use did not account for a proportion of people whose disease did not respond to IVIg. Another important limitation in the company's modelling of IVIg was that it did not account for people who would stop IVIg over the lifetime of the model (which is over 50 years in length). The committee noted that IVIg may be stopped because of side effects, patient choice or a loss of efficacy. Also, few people, if any, would remain on IVIg for such long periods of time as implied by the company's modelling. The committee also noted that the company's model assumed the maximum dosing frequency for IVIg, which may also overestimate IVIg use. The clinical experts noted that IVIg would usually be a last-line treatment and some people may continue it for some time, but they could not advise on how long IVIg might be used.
The committee noted that in the company's base case, undiscounted IVIg acquisition and administration costs accounted for substantially over £1 million per person in the established clinical management arm. The committee also noted that there was uncertainty around using MG-ADL scores to estimate IVIg use. This was because other clinical details, alongside MG-ADL score, would probably be used in the NHS when deciding whether to offer IVIg. The committee concluded that the company's approach to modelling IVIg use substantially overestimated the use of maintenance IVIg. It also concluded that because of how IVIg use was estimated and modelled, it could not have confidence in any estimate of IVIg use provided by the company's model.
For the third committee meeting the company updated its modelling of IVIg to account for people whose disease did not respond to IVIg or who stop IVIg. The company estimated that 19.5% of people would stop IVIg because their disease did not respond to IVIg based on pooled data from 2 studies (Hellman et al. 2014 and Bril et al. 2023). The company also estimated a constant annual rate of long-term IVIg discontinuation based on data from published studies. The estimated rate is considered confidential by the company and cannot be reported here. The company stated that the UK ABN guidelines suggest that the duration of efficacy of IVIg is 3 to 4 weeks. So, it considered that assuming IVIg was given every 4 weeks was appropriate. The EAG thought that the company's dosing regimen and updated discontinuation assumptions were reasonable.
The company stated that it had aligned IVIg discontinuation with how discontinuations were considered in the efgartigimod arm of the model. But the estimated time on treatment for IVIg was substantially higher than for efgartigimod. The committee decided that this lacked face validity given the easier administration and improved clinical benefit associated with efgartigimod, and the fact that efgartigimod is licensed for this condition. The clinical experts explained that because efgartigimod is a new treatment they could not definitively state the likely time on treatment for efgartigimod compared with IVIg. The company explained that time on treatment for IVIg may be longer because treatment options are limited after stopping IVIg, whereas people could have IVIg after stopping efgartigimod.
At the fourth committee meeting the company produced a scenario modelling the same time on treatment for IVIg and efgartigimod, in line with the committee's preference. But the company stated this was not representative of discontinuations from maintenance IVIg treatment. It noted that some discontinuations observed for efgartigimod were in people with an MG-ADL score less than 5, which it believed was related to improvement in the condition. The company stated there was no evidence that discontinuation because of improvement of symptoms would happen for people having IVIg. So, the company produced an analysis that extrapolated time on treatment for IVIg from the efgartigimod data but censored people who stopped with an MG-ADL score less than 5. This resulted in a time on treatment for IVIg that was significantly longer than for efgartigimod (the company considers the time on treatment for both IVIg and efgartigimod to be confidential so cannot be reported here). The EAG noted that, although it was reasonable that people with an MG-ADL score less than 5 would not have maintenance IVIg, censoring had a high impact on the incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER) and evidence for IVIg time on treatment was poor. At the fourth committee meeting, the clinical experts again explained that they would expect time on treatment for IVIg and efgartigimod to be similar, acknowledging the limitations of the evidence base available. The clinical experts also stated that a 65% to 70% response rate for IVIg would be expected, which was lower than that estimated by the company. The committee was aware that this range was consistent with the response rates that were used in the modelling in other ongoing NICE evaluations addressing the same condition. The patient experts explained that, in their experience, people had poor responses and more complications when using IVIg and plasma exchange, and people would be less likely to stop efgartigimod than IVIg or plasma exchange. The committee noted that the company's censoring analysis was based on a very small number of people who had stopped efgartigimod treatment with an MG-ADL score of less than 5 and that the length of follow up was short for these people. The committee decided that the statements from the clinical and patient experts also suggested that the company's analysis including censoring was implausible. The committee decided that IVIg inputs in the model had a substantial impact on cost effectiveness, which created very high uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results. The committee concluded that the most appropriate time on treatment for IVIg was the same as that estimated for efgartigimod, but noted that this was highly uncertain. The committee recalled that NICE aims to promote consistency across evaluations when appropriate. So, the committee also concluded that a 70% response rate, as used in the modelling in other ongoing evaluations in the same condition, and 4-weekly 1 g per kg dosing was the most appropriate base-case assumption for IVIg in the model, although this was highly uncertain.